Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Small-caps, mid-caps flourish

The market-breadth was strong on BSE, as buying continued for small-cap and mid-cap stocks. Analysts expect the buying to shift to this space, anticipating robust results for the December quarter. There were over 2.5 gainers for every loser on BSE. Against 1,721 shares advancing, 706 declined, and 49 did not change.

The market has remained firm as buying continued.At 11:35 IST the Sensex was up 35.78 points, to 14,150.51. It had opened higher, at 14,133.78, and slipped to a low of 14,094.50, where it recovered to reach another high of 14,170.65.The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 1654 crore.Among the 30-Sensex pack, 23 advanced while the rest declined.

Engineering and construction major L&T was the top gainer, up 1.50% to Rs 1543, on a volume of 54,570 shares.

Airlines, autos celebrate as crude price cascades
Jet Airways jumped 4.5% to Rs 699, Deccan Aviation rose 3.3% to Rs 158 and SpiceJet rose 2.8% to Rs 60.35.

Among auto shares, Tata Motors rose 1.3% to Rs 971, Ashok Leyland gained 1.6% to Rs 46, car major Maruti Udyog firmed up 1.1% to Rs 920.75 while Hero Honda advanced 0.8% to Rs 733.

Oil price declined sharply on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia said OPEC production cuts were working well and there was no need for an emergency meeting of the producer group. US crude for February delivery fell $1.78 to settle at $51.21 a barrel, after hitting a session low at $50.55 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude price has tumbled in the past few days with the United States projecting warmer-than-normal winter.

Reports recently suggested that the government will take another look at retail prices of petrol and diesel on 31 January 2007. In November 2006, retail petrol and diesel prices were cut by Rs 2 and Re 1 a litre, respectively, when the basket of crude that Indian refiners buy was at $56.8 a barrel. The Indian basket of crude is now much below that level with US crude ruling at just above $51 a barrel.

Leading auto firms reported strong sales figure for December 2006. On 1 January, Bajaj Auto said sales in December 2006 rose 24% to 2,14,928 units from a year ago. Bajaj’s motorcycle sales rose 26% to 1,87,063 units in December 2006. Maruti Udyog sold 56,985 vehicles in December, a 23.7% rise from a year earlier. Maruti said Indian sales rose 26.3% in December 2006 to 54,640.

After trading hours on 2 January, Tata Motors said vehicle sales rose 37% in December 2006 to 48,792 units from 35,598 units a year earlier. Sales of commercial vehicles rose 50% to 28,179 units from 18,730 units, while sales of passenger vehicles rose 27% to 16,515 units. Exports rose 7% to 4,098 units.

The sharp fall in oil price has also raised expectations of cut in prices of aviation turbine fuel (ATF). Fuel costs account for 65% of operating expenses of the airline companies. It may be recalled that state-run oil firms had early this month raised aviation turbine fuel (ATF) price by over 4% in line with the rise in international oil prices. ATF for domestic airlines in Delhi was raised by 4.4% to Rs 37746.92 per kilolitre (kl), while in Mumbai the price was hiked by Rs 1649.43 per kl to Rs 39013.31 per kl.

CMC gaining in leaps and bounds
CMC jumped 16% to Rs 1212, extending its stupendous surge after Q3 results.As many as 3.4 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE.From Rs 697.95 on 12 January, it has gained 73.6% in mere three trading session. The company announced its Q3 results on 13 January. The surge in the counter has materialised on high volumes. The daily volumes in the stock were between 2.3 lakh and 4.2 lakh shares (on BSE) on 15 - 16 January, compared to the average daily volume of 11,673 shares in the past 1 year.

Analysts say rerating is what the counter is experiencing. Earlier, CMC was seen as a hardware company focussed on domestic business, but now is seen as a services company with sights on the international market.

The trigger for rerating has been Q3 results. A favourable change in business mix has led to the robust Q3 performance. CMC’s consolidated net profit jumped 69% in December 2006 quarter, to Rs 20.40 crore (Rs 12.07 crore). Consolidated sales jumped 44% to Rs 298.63 crore (Rs 207.25 crore). For 9-months April-September 2006, CMC’s net profit rose 26% to Rs 48.50 crore (Rs 38.59 crore). Consolidated revenue rose 30% to Rs 790.69 crore (Rs 609.24 crore).

The company has four distinct strategic business units, namely, customer services (CS), system integration (SI), IT enabled services (ITES) and education and training (E&T). Except E&T, the other three business segments performed well in December 2006 quarter. There was a significant margin improvement in CMC’s ITES & system integration segments in Q3 December 2006.

In CS segment, the company focusses on more international business where it is partnering with TCS its holding company for infrastructure management services. The company is moving away from the traditional low margin equipment sale business.

In its conference call held on 16 January, CMC said it plans to improve operating margins from the current 9.4% to 15% (including EO) in the next 4-6 quarters.

CMC said its embedded solutions segment, which is part of system integration division, will grow at a faster rate. In ITES, the company will focus on digitization wherein it is targeting 40-50% growth every year. Currently, the company has two private sector banks as clients.

CMC’s employee strength as on 31 December 2006, stand at 3,528 and contractors at 1,500. The company plans to add about 300 – 500 personnel in the next financial year.

The current price of Rs 1212 discounts its FY 2006 (year ended 31 March 2006) EPS of Rs 20.10 (based on consolidated earnings) by a PE multiple of 60.

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